Trading update impacts 2026-27e, goodwill write-down

Lumi Education Group has released its 2026/27e financials guidance; while we had expected softness on the back of muted enrolment numbers for 2026/27, it was still below our expectations, particularly in ONH. The trading update also offered more clarity on the previously flagged impairment indicator on Sonans’ NOK480m goodwill, which is now guided at NOK175m–250m. The trading update and closure of the Bjørknes acquisition have a net positive impact on our 2026–28e revenue, while we lower adj. EBIT by 2–6%. We edge down our fair value range to NOK17–21 (18–22).

2026/27e financials guidance. Group 2026/27 revenue (excluding Bjørknes) growth is guided at 0–2% Y/Y (we expected +3% Y/Y, excluding Bjørknes), with the deviation largely explained by ONH (growth guided at 2–4% Y/Y, compared with our 6% estimate). The guidance reflects a soft underlying market (enrolment up c0.5% Y/Y, according to the company), while we estimate some impact on Sonans from the fullføringsreformen (completion reform) in Norway. Management expects cost-cutting measures to yield annualised savings of NOK30m–35m. 2026/27e group adj. EBITA is guided at NOK106m–111m.

Revising 2026–27 estimates, adding Bjørknes acquisition. We now include Bjørknes in our estimates following the closure of its acquisition, while we cut our 2026–27 ONH revenue estimates by 3% and our Sonans EBIT estimates by 7–15%.
Short-term impact, long-term education trends remain. Recent news flow has been disappointing, with a soft underlying market, the goodwill write-down and the impact of the fullføringsreformen. Still, we see long-term drivers including a continued demand gap in Lumi Education’s key subject areas. We have a fair value range of NOK17–21 (18–22) based on our revised estimates and slightly lower peer multiples.