Entering the next phase of recovery - Q2 review

Q2 was significantly above expectations, although temporary factors contributed materially to the beat. The operational recovery is encouraging, with management more confident in its FY 2026/27 (ending March) outlook. We raise our adj. EBIT estimate by 36% for 2026/27e, while trimming our 2027/28–2028/29e slightly, reflecting pipeline risk and limited visibility on launch timing. We maintain our fair value range of SEK35–55.

Strong Q2 but temporary factors boosted earnings. Sales rose 82% Y/Y to SEK157m (39% above our forecast), supported by competitor stock-outs, Mellozzan milestones and improving availability. Underlying sales were cSEK120m, 6% above our estimate. Adj. gross margin reached 45% (our forecast: 37%), excluding SEK15m in write-downs, but benefited from high-margin milestones. Management expects a normalised margin of 35–40% near-term. Adj. EBIT reached SEK37m (our forecast: SEK12m). The acute operational challenges appear to be receding, although launch execution remains uncertain.

Positive near-term revisions, more cautious longer term. We raise our 2026/27e sales by 4% and adj. EBIT by 36%, reflecting Q2 and greater confidence in the c15% growth guidance. We trim our 2027/28–2028/29e sales by 1–3% and adj. EBIT by 3–6%, reflecting more cautious launch assumptions. Only one of four planned H2 launches appears relatively certain, while management is reviewing its long-term targets. We believe potential downward revision is largely anticipated by the market. Leverage declined to 6.6x EBITDA (3.7x adj.) but remains elevated.

Fair value of SEK35–55; recovery gaining traction. We are increasingly positive on the company’s near-term outlook, with improving supply and stronger profitability supporting the recovery. We believe improving supply conditions and greater confidence in FY 2026/27 guidance have reduced near-term execution risk. Further out, however, uncertainty around product launches continues to limit visibility on the growth trajectory into 2027/28 and beyond.