A strong comeback after the weaker Q2 - Q3 review

Idun Industrier reported a strong Q3, in our view, with EBITA up 37% Y/Y and 12% above our forecast (no consensus), predominantly driven by better-than-expected sales and margins in Service & Maintenance. Following the weaker Q2, we consider this a strong comeback and a demonstration that Q2 was indeed a bump in the road. Following the report, we increase our adj. EPS by 2–4% for 2026–28e. Having updated our estimates and reviewed peer multiples, we adjust our fair value range to SEK310–435 (SEK320–430).

A strong Q3 that dispelled Q2 concerns. Idun Industrier reported a strong set of Q3 numbers, with EBITA 12% above our forecast. Organic group sales were up c11% Y/Y, c8%-points ahead of our estimate of c3%, and clearly above the c1% reported in Q2. The EBITA margin was up 120bps Y/Y and 100bps above our expectation, with EBITA growing c11% organically Y/Y. The beat versus our EBITA estimate was predominantly driven by the Service & Maintenance division, whereas Manufacturing was broadly in line. At the subsidiary level, Interagro Skog (part of LMI) and Culina had weaker quarters, whereas Fredahl Rydéns, Ståthöga MA Teknik and Triton were performing strongly. As for the outlook, management said on the conference call that: 1) Ståthöga MA Teknik benefited from good project execution in Q3, some of which are expected to continue during Q4, albeit with quite limited visibility for these types of projects; 2) Q3 was slightly stronger than management’s own expectations following the weaker Q2; and 3) the market is gradually stabilising for a growing share of group companies, with a positive view on 2027, including the potential to conduct further acquisitions. As such, we believe the strong Q3 execution demonstrates that Q2 weakness was more of a bump in the road than a trend change.

We increase our 2026–28e adj. EPS by 2–4%, reflecting the positive Q3 deviation and somewhat more optimistic organic growth and margin assumptions over the forecast period.

Fair value range adjusted to SEK310–435. Our fair value range is based on peer group and M&A scenario valuation approaches and corresponds to a 2027e EV/EBITA of ~12–15x.