Norway expansion going well - Q3 review

Calviks’ Q3 numbers were strong, with adj. EBITDA and margins above our estimates and strong organic growth. Considering the estimate uncertainty going into the numbers due to the high-paced M&A, we consider Q3 reassuring with regard to the financial performance of the acquired businesses. We expect additional growth from M&A in Q4 from the consolidation of the remainder of the recent Norwegian acquisitions. We have a new fair value range of SEK80–100/share (74–91).

Norway deals and strong organic expansion. Q3 group revenue was SEK716m (+101% Y/Y), 3% below our estimate, but strong organic growth (8.7% vs our 5% estimate) was the headline. Adj. EBITDA was SEK53m (34% above our SEK39m forecast), corresponding to a 7.4% EBITDA margin, which we consider strong, and in our view likely reflects an accretive subsidiary and industry revenue mix. Operating cash flow was SEK-52m, but management cited a strong single-customer invoice timing effect (valued by Calviks at cNOK78m) that affected Q3 but has been resolved during Q4.

Minor revisions. We make minor estimate revisions to 2026–28e following Q3. Our 2026–28e revenue is down 1%, 2026e EBITDA is up SEK13m (+10%), and our 2026–28e EPS is up 3–19%.

Integration going well, now eyeing 2027. Our equity story relies on well-performed M&A activity strengthening the favourable qualities of the group, including business exposure, while this business exposure, in our view, should support organic growth above peers. We believe Q3 supports our theory, through indications of well-integrated Norwegian businesses on top of the previously announced acquisitions in Sweden. The group also reported solid organic growth.

Valuation. We have a new fair value range of SEK80–100/share (74–91), based on our higher estimates.