Return to Q/Q ARR growth - Q3 review

Albert Group showed a promising return to underlying revenue growth in Q3, with ARR up 6.7% Q/Q driven by higher marketing investment. With the focus turning towards revenue growth in 2027–28e, we see further potential catalysts for the story. We have slightly raised and widened our fair value range to SEK5.3–7.7 (5.2–7.5) per share, reflecting the improving sales momentum.

Q3 review. We see signs of Albert Group’s operational focus yielding results, with last year’s cost-base adjustments now allowing for reinvestment in growth. Q3 revenue came to SEK36.7m, +1% Y/Y and +5% Q/Q, with Q/Q ARR growth of SEK8.4m taking ARR to SEK134m, 1% ahead of our estimate and driven by the shorter-cycle B2C segment. The higher marketing investment burdened Q3 adj. EBITDA, which at SEK0.1m was short of our SEK2.1m expectation. However, with Q4 being the seasonally strongest quarter in terms of earnings, we still see the company’s target of positive EBITDA and OpCF for 2026 well within reach. OpCF was seasonally weaker in Q3, but still leaving a net cash position of SEK48m at the end of the quarter.

Forecast update. Our forecast changes post-Q3 relate to the phasing of costs and investments, with revenue raised by 2–3% in 2026–28e. We also factor in higher capitalisation of development costs in 2027–28e on the back of the new AI venture that is intended to bridge the gap between Albert Jr (B2C) and Sumdog (B2B), lengthening retention periods, and in our view potentially translating into new revenue growth opportunities from 2028e.

Positive catalysts. Given the much-improved stability of operations, we believe progress towards the 2026 financial targets should offer the main support near term, with a potential return to strong revenue and ARR growth as possible catalysts for the story in 2027–28.

Fair value range raised to SEK5.3–7.7, still using an EV/sales measure on an NTM base to reflect the Q3 development and evolution of the Albert Group’s story.