Lower sales outlook; margins intact - Q3 initial comment

Q3 sales were below our expectation, while the gross margin was higher and costs were broadly in line, resulting in an EBITDA margin in line with our estimate. The sales shortfall appears to reflect delays in major programmes and late deliveries from subcontractors. AAC now expects 2026 sales to be at the lower end of its guidance range, while its EBITDA margin and cash flow targets remain intact. We forecast sales around the mid-point of the guided range.

Both segments reported lower sales than we expected. Sales deviations were of a similar magnitude in both Data & Services and Products & Missions, coming in 18% and 16% below our estimates, respectively. Management stated that subcontractor delays were caused by a global shortage of electronic components. Y/Y growth of 8.7% and 35.2%, respectively, was driven by the INFLECION and Sterna programmes.

EBITDA margin in line with our estimate. Despite the lower-than-expected sales, Data & Services delivered a much higher EBITDA margin of 42.5% – we expected 24.9%. This indicates that costs in the segment were lower than expected and also down Q/Q. The Products & Missions EBITDA margin was below our estimate, which we believe primarily reflected lower sales volumes.

Sales guidance moves to the lower end; margin and cash flow intact. AAC’s 2026 sales guidance is SEK440m–510m. Due to delays in major programmes and component shortages, management now expects sales to land in the lower part of the range. Nevertheless, it retains its 10% EBITDA margin target and positive operating cash flow ambition for the year.