Americas should grow, eyes on order intake - Q4 preview

We expect solid growth in Americas, backed by continued Sobey’s deliveries, while we are more cautious on Europe. We will closely monitor order intake, which should be supported by the PLUS order announced in December. We lower our fair value range to SEK5.0–9.5 (5.4–9.5) on the back of our 2026–27 estimate revisions.

Adding caution on Europe, order intake a key consideration in Q4. We estimate Q4 revenue of SEK549m, down 13% Y/Y; we expect Europe to decline 33% Y/Y and Americas to grow 32%, supported by the Sobey’s roll-out. We lower our 2025e revenue by 3% to reflect a more cautious approach towards Europe in Q4. While Pricer’s Q3 Europe book-to-bill of 0.66x already underpinned our muted Q4 expectations, we lower our estimates further for Q4 based on indications that Europe has remained cautious since the Q3 release. We will monitor the Q4 group order intake, which should be supported by the Dutch PLUS order in December 2025, valued by Pricer at about SEK140m, while we believe the order intake also will provide an indication of the progress of the direct-sales model conversion in the Nordics and Baltics, which negatively affected Q3 order intake. We estimate Q4 group EBIT of SEK25m, equal to a 5% margin. We revise our revenue 2025e by 3%, which pushes down revenue in 2026–27e, with 2026–27e revenue also negatively affected by FX. We reduce our 2026–27e EPS by 7%.

Some recent momentum in orders, UK and new customers remains in focus. Pricer has announced some encouraging orders and agreements recently, with the December PLUS order in Europe (valued at SEK120m) and the MDI agreement in Americas (total scope of appr. 600 stores). UK and larger new orders remain key for the growth prospects, and we maintain our view that our 2026e revenue requires the addition of at least one larger customer rollout, on top of positive performance of the underlying market, mainly in Europe.

Valuation. We have a fair value range of SEK5.0–9.5 (SEK5.4–9.5).