Steady quarter, fundraising and exits ahead - Q3 review

Taaleri’s underlying performance was stable in Q3, with revenue of EUR17m and EBIT of EUR9.4m. Continuing earnings were EUR12m, up 18% Y/Y, driven by a success fee to Taaleri Kapitaali, included in the other segment; adjusting for this, underlying growth was 2% Y/Y. We keep our fair value range of EUR7.3–9.6 per share.

Stable private asset management. Continuing earnings in asset management were EUR7.1m, up ~5% Y/Y. After the EUR1.7m reversal of SolarWind I performance fees in Q2, we expected an uplift in performance fees in Q3. The timing of exits and price estimates were affected in particular by electricity price expectations, interest rates and buyers’ higher return requirements, which led to a write-down of performance fees for Wind II and Wind III of EUR-0.6m. Taaleri received EUR1.2m in performance fees for the exit of the Taaleri biorefinery in Fintoil. It continues to prepare for fundraising for its new funds in 2027, alongside planned exits from its older wind funds.

Garantia earnings normalised after a strong Q2. Garantia reported Q3 operating profit of EUR4.6m, down from EUR9.8m in Q2. Although the underlying insurance business showed strength, with a combined ratio of 25.7%, investment income declined to EUR1.8m after the exceptionally strong Q2.

Fintoil becoming an increasingly important part of Investments. During Q3, Taaleri closed the first tranche of Fintoil’s EUR105m financing round, investing EUR25m. A further investment of EUR5m is conditional on Fintoil’s performance. With the new investment, Fintoil has become 40% of the investment portfolio’s fair value.

Estimate revisions after of the report. We adjust our 2026–27e EBIT by 0–1% due to a slightly lower cost base, and raise 2028e by 10% on higher expected performance fees. Our valuation is based on an SOTP approach, benchmarking Taaleri against international asset managers operating in similar market segments. We keep our fair value range of EUR7.3–9.6 per share.