Strong EBITA but weaker FCF - Q3 initial

ITAB Group's Q3 underlying was ahead of expectations, with revenue growth of 3% Y/Y (organic +2%) on strong performance in the Nordics and Spain, a solid gross margin and cost control, resulting in 3% Y/Y adj. EBITA growth to SEK266m, 10% above company-collected consensus (SEK241m), but with a larger seasonal working capital tie-up in Q3 negatively impacting FCF generation. The new CEO, Björn Borgman, highlighted the initiatives to create a more flexible cost structure to better balance project-volume fluctuations and a drive to prioritise growth in Retail Tech. Cost synergy realisation is going as planned, with added focus on mitigating current cost inflation with new actions, and price management is gradually progressing towards the 7–9% EBIT margin goal.

Share price reaction: Further colour in the upcoming call will be important, but if the detailed report sets the tone, we would not expect any major consensus revisions on the back of the Q3 report, and expect a neutral share price reaction (+/-1%).

Q3 headline results. Revenue increased 3.0% Y/Y (organic +2.0%, FX +0.9%) to SEK3,397m (DCARe SEK3,378m), while the adj. gross margin expanded by 14bps Y/Y to 24.5% (DCARe 24.5%). The adj. EBITA margin was unchanged at 7.8% (+1bp Y/Y) and adj. EBITA was SEK266m (DCARe SEK252m), up 3% Y/Y, and 10% ahead of the company-collected consensus (SEK241m), with the pre-announced ERP write-down (IAC SEK244m) affecting reported EBIT. FCF was weaker than we expected at SEK-284m (Q3 2025: SEK-111m), mainly WC-related, implying a ND/EBITDA of 2.69x at end-Q3 (2.64x IFRS16 adj.).

Conference call (English): 10.30 CET.

Webcast (link): https://itab-group.events.inderes.com/q3-report-2026.

Teleconference (registration): https://events.inderes.com/itab-group/q3-report-2026/dial-in.