Cybersecurity at the heart of growth - initiating coverage

Clavister provides proprietary cybersecurity software for network security and identity and access management across civilian and defence markets, benefiting from structural growth and Europe’s push for digital sovereignty. Its scalable business model combines recurring revenues with the potential for sizeable defence contracts. Having reached a new phase, Clavister is reinvesting cash flow into targeted market segments and geographical expansion to accelerate growth and gain market share. We initiate coverage with a fair value range of SEK4.4–5.5 per share.

Leveraging European roots in security-sensitive markets. In the civilian cybersecurity market, Clavister faces competition from major US vendors. It therefore focuses on security-sensitive sectors where European origin, reliability and security are particularly valued, including the public sector, energy, defence and critical infrastructure. To scale efficiently, Clavister leverages distributors and channel partners, enabling broad market coverage and geographical expansion without a proportional increase in operating costs.

Sales growth takes priority. With positive cash generation and a strong balance sheet, set to benefit further from an expected SEK65m defence milestone payment in Q4 2026e, Clavister has room to accelerate investments in product development, sales and geographical expansion, including Poland. We expect growth to take priority over near-term profitability, with EBIT margins of c13% in the coming years, despite the demonstrated potential for higher margins in Q2 2026.

Fair value range SEK4.4–5.5. Clavister’s sizeable contract wins and pipeline create significant earnings potential, but also make forecasting challenging, as individual orders can materially impact sales and profitability. We consider our estimates balanced pending further evidence of growth. Given its attractive market exposure and scalable business model, we view Clavister as a somewhat unique investment opportunity in the Nordic equity market, supporting 2027e EV/Sales of 4–5x and 2028e EV/EBIT of 26–32x.