BMK a bright spark - Q3 review

HANZA’s Q3 report showed further progress towards the 2028 targets, with: 1) 7% organic growth Y/Y; 2) BMK’s adj. EBITA margin reaching 9.2%, only three quarters after acquisition; and 3) Fortaco set to enter the group from Q4e at a c9% EBITA margin. We raise our 2026–28e adj. EBITA estimates by 2%, reflecting stronger organic growth and margin assumptions, as well as updated FX, and increase our fair value range to SEK153–209 (149–203) per share.

Adj. EBITA growth of 126% Y/Y in Q3. Sales reached SEK2,487m (Q3 2025: 1,404m), including 7% organic growth Y/Y. Adj. EBITA was SEK217m (96m), corresponding to an 8.7% margin (6.9%), excluding net positive IAC of SEK6m comprising a SEK30m Milectria earn-out revaluation partly offset by SEK24m of Fortaco transaction costs, Finland management buyout costs and a customs audit. BMK was the highlight of the report, with the integration completed three months ahead of plan and its adj. EBITA margin rising to 9.2% in Q3 (7.5% in Q2 and 7.3% in Q1), a level management sees as more normal. The Fortaco acquisition is expected to close on 2 November; we estimate cSEK6m of remaining transaction costs in Q4, with the business contributing cSEK1.9bn of annual sales at an EBITA margin of c9%.

2026–28e adj. EBITA raised by 2%. We raise our organic growth assumptions by 1%-point for 2026–28, to 11%, 6% and 6%, respectively. This reflects the strong 12% organic growth YTD, continued healthy development in key end-markets and strong order intake in BMK. The adj. EBITA upgrades also reflect improved margins in acquired operations, notably BMK.

We raise our fair value range to SEK153–209, based on a 2027e EV/EBITA range of 11–14x considering continued organic growth, the faster-than-expected BMK integration and Fortaco entering the group without margin dilution. We expect HANZA to reach its SEK14bn sales and 9% EBITA margin targets in 2028e without further need for acquisitions.