Strong numbers and high-paced M&A - Q3 initial

Calviks’ Q3 numbers were strong, with adj. EBITDA and margins above our estimates and strong organic growth. Considering the high-paced M&A, we consider Q3 reassuring with regard to the financial performance of the acquired businesses, which in turn should be supportive of our 2027 estimates. Going forward, the recently announced refinancing terms should provide support for EPS growth in 2027–28e, in connection with the strong M&A pace.

Strong EBITDA margin, high-paced M&A. While Q3 group revenue of SEK716m (+101% Y/Y) was 3% below our estimate, we find it largely supportive of our estimated contribution from the acquisitions in Q4 2026 and into 2027. Organic growth was strong at 9% Y/Y, above our 5% estimate. Adj. EBITDA was SEK53m (34% above our forecast of SEK39m), implying a 7.4% EBITDA margin, which we consider strong, and in our view likely reflects an accretive subsidiary and industry revenue mix. Operating cash flow was negative at SEK-52m, but management cited a strong single-customer invoice timing effect (valued by Calviks at cNOK78m) which impacted Q3 but has been resolved during Q4.

Supportive of 2026–27e. We find Q3 was reassuring and a sign that integrations are running well, while the EBITDA margin was strong. Going forward, the recently improved financing terms and the Norwegian acquisitions should provide support for revenue and EPS growth in Q4 and onwards, in our view.