Restocking and easier comparables - Q2 preview

We expect a more favourable comparison and progress on restocking to support a return to sales growth in Q2 2026/27. We forecast a sequential improvement in the adj. gross margin, and fine-tune our opex estimates, raising our adj. EBIT for 2026/27e by 1% and lowering 2027/28–2028/29e by 3–4%. Our fair value range is adjusted to SEK35–55 (35–60).

More favourable comparison and restocking to support Q2. We forecast sales of SEK113m, up 31% Y/Y, supported by an easier comparison and expected progress on restocking following earlier supply disruptions. We expect a gross margin of 37%, up from 35% in Q1, excluding potential inventory scrapping. Our estimates include SEK5m of scrapping, although this assumption is highly uncertain given limited visibility. With 5% opex growth Y/Y, we forecast adj. EBIT of SEK12m, corresponding to a 10% margin.

Limited estimate changes. Following fine-tuning, we raise our sales for 2026/27e by 1% but lower 2027/28e and 2028/29e by 2%. We make minor changes to opex, with our estimates implying 11% growth in 2026/27 before moderating to high single digits, closer to the company’s cost ambitions. With gross margin assumptions broadly unchanged, we raise adj. EBIT by 1% for 2026/27e but decrease 2027/28e by 4% and 2028/29e by 3%.

Fair value range adjusted to SEK35–55. We are upbeat on the prospects for an improvement in Q2, although we expect EQL to remain a show-me story until a sustained recovery in underlying trading is demonstrated. While we expect the easier comparison to support strong headline growth in Q2 and see scope for upside potential to our estimates, we believe management’s outlook for H2 will be more important to build investor confidence near-term. We will look for indications of continued restocking and improving gross margins to support expectations of a sustained recovery and stronger operating leverage.