Rise of the phoenix

Fingerprint Cards (FPC) develops and sells biometric systems and fingerprint sensors. The company has transformed itself completely over the past two years. After phasing out sales to PC and mobile OEMs, it now focuses primarily on access. FPC is currently converting customers to turnkey solution AllKey. At triple the ASP and similar gross margins to its previous sensor-only sales, we consider AllKey a gamechanger and expect a 29% group sales 2025–30 CAGR. Coverage reinitiated with a SEK30–40 fair value range.

AllKey drives a 29% sales CAGR for 2025–30e. FPS’s turnkey solution AllKey is moving the group up the value chain. With lower overall costs and simpler installation for customers, the initial feedback is very good, and we expect 50% of customers to have converted to the solution by 2030e. This conversion is an important sales driver for the coming years, in our view.

Moving towards positive cash flow. We expect that operating costs will have more than halved Y/Y in 2025e, and expect further decreases in 2026–27. As sales grow, we expect EBITDA to turn positive towards end-2026, and expect 2027e to be the first positive year for EBITDA. Continuous monetisation of its IP portfolio and know-how should finance ongoing operations as well as growth initiatives, and we do not foresee any further capital needs.

Software provides optionality. The Anonybit partnership gives FPC exposure to the ‘identity cloud’. This solution targets workforce authentication and is integrated with Microsoft Entra – a leading identity and access management (IAM) system. Although it could take off fast, especially as the rising cyberthreat has increased focus on authentication and biometrics, the timing is uncertain, and we see it as an optionality rather than a secure source of growth.

Multiples, DCF give SEK30–40 FV. Negligible earnings in 2025–27e see us use EV/S as the key multiple, but also EV/EBITDA to 2030e to capture the earnings profile, plus DCFs. We use 2x EV/S on 2027e sales and 12x EBITDA on 2030e earnings and discount all values to today.