Q2 2026/27 initial - significantly ahead on sales and margins

Q2 beat our expectations significantly, partly driven by temporary sales contributions. Improving availability and strong adjusted margins are encouraging, although the sustainability of the recovery remains uncertain.

Strong beat, partly driven by temporary factors. Sales rose 82% Y/Y to SEK157m (39% above DCARe), supported by a competitor stockout, Mellozzan milestones and improved availability. Management estimates underlying sales at cSEK120m, 6% above DCARe. The adjusted gross margin reached 45% (DCARe 37%; Q1 35%), excluding SEK15m in inventory write-downs and provisions for supplier claims recognised in COGS, although likely boosted by milestones. Reported EBIT was SEK22m (DCARe SEK7m), while adjusted EBIT reached SEK37m (DCARe SEK12m), also benefiting from temporary sales.

Guidance reiterated, long-term targets under review. Management maintains c15% sales growth guidance for 2026/27 (DCARe 13%), citing improving supply and a stable H2 outlook. However, it is reassessing its long-term targets of 30% sales CAGR and an EBITDA margin above 25% by 2028/29. We believe investors already attach limited credibility to these targets, suggesting a potential downgrade is largely anticipated. Management expects four H2 launches versus its previous ambition of eight, although timing remains uncertain. Leverage declined to 6.6x EBITDA (3.7x adjusted), but remains above target.

Positive consensus revisions likely, but sustainability remains key. The margin beat and improving supply are encouraging, although temporary sales contributions and launch delays limit visibility. Our initial impression points to consensus full-year sales increases of c2–5%, with a more pronounced impact on EBIT. We expect the shares to trade meaningfully higher on the beat, while today's call should clarify underlying margins, H2 expectations and deleveraging.