Poised for accelerated sales growth - Q3 review

We believe Q3 was temporarily soft and expect sales growth to accelerate rapidly over the coming quarters, supported by a strong order backlog and improved visibility on future demand. Following the Q3 report, we lower our 2026 estimates but raise our 2027–28 forecasts, and in turn our fair value range to SEK18–25 (16–22) per share.

Temporary (we believe) slowdown in Q3. Revenue was SEK4.8m (SEK10.2m in Q2), including SEK2.0m of negative adjustments related to prior licence-revenue recognition, 2025 invoices and provisions. Excluding these items, revenue was broadly in line with our expectations. Q3 gross margin improved to 35% (54% adjusted for one-offs), a sharp improvement from 17% in Q2 and above our estimate of 28%. While opex rose Y/Y, reflecting ongoing preparations for the OTS Hip rollout in Europe and the US, we expect cost growth to moderate. With commercial activity set to pick up from Q4, management expects higher working-capital needs, primarily to be met through bank credit facilities.

Estimate revisions. We reduce our 2026e sales by 5% and adj. EPS by 20% following the Q3 report. However, we see a materially stronger outlook for 2027–28, supported by the recently announced order package, which improves visibility and reinforces our conviction in the long-term growth story. We continue to conservatively model revenue below the full order value. We also increase our cost assumptions, although this is more than offset by an improved revenue outlook. Consequently, we expect profitability to strengthen, and believe the company has a realistic opportunity to achieve positive EBITDA in 2027.

Fair value range raised to SEK18–25. We believe the equity story has improved further following the large orders from its partner, providing better visibility into the launch and the partner’s likely strong commitment. Together with our raised forecasts, this leads us to increase our fair value range, implying 2028e EV/sales of 3.1–4.3x, in line with Swedish medtech peers.