Record high order intake - Q3 review

With a record high order intake in Q3, Nordic LEVEL Group (LEVEL) has had two consecutive quarters with very strong order intake, which is unusual and an indication of the group’s momentum. We expect the margin to bounce in 2027 and keep our FV range of SEK0.60–0.85 unchanged.

Accelerating sales... Sales were up 29% Y/Y after two consecutive quarters of declines as several projects delayed in H1 were put into production. Order intake grew by ~200% Y/Y – a record high – while the bid stock grew 72% Y/Y – another record. Datacentres, an area that sees growing demand, is a key driver. In August, it signed its largest ever order in fire protection with Winthrop Technologies, and the order was followed by two other large orders from datacentres shortly afterwards.

…and EBITDA. Having been negative in Q1 and Q2, adj. EBITDA turned positive in Q3. At SEK8m, adj. EBITDA was SEK3m above our forecast and significantly higher Y/Y (~SEK-1m in Q3 2025). Except for the effect from higher volumes, the Next LEVEL efficiency programme continues to take effect while the impact from LEVEL UP continues to materialise.

New financial targets imply 17% EBITDA CAGR until 2031e. The company’s new long-term financial targets, presented in September, include growth of more than 10% per year organically in 2027–31 and an average EBITDA margin of 10% over the cycle, and ND/EBITDA should not exceed 2.5x. On our calculations, 10% annual organic growth in 2027–31e would translate to revenues of ~SEK630m in 2031e. When applying a 10% EBITDA margin, we estimate adj. EBITDA of SEK63m, corresponding to a CAGR of 17%, from adj. EBITDA of SEK25m in 2025.

Minor changes to 2027–28e EBITDA. We make low single-digit cuts to 2027–28e EBITDA but lower adj. EPS by 5–10% on higher than expected financial costs and changes in the number of shares. We keep our fair value range unchanged.