Growth intact, margins pressured - Q3 preview

We expect Q3 sales growth to remain stable, supported by both higher volumes and some Y/Y price increases. However, raw-material prices remain elevated and, given the delay before these increases are reflected in Clemondo’s financials, we lower our gross-margin assumptions for Q3 and Q4 2026. We leave all other estimates unchanged. Consequently, we lower our fair value range to SEK8–11 per share (9–12).

Underlying markets look promising. New registrations of both heavy and light vehicles in Sweden are trending upwards. In addition, Bilia has reported positive car-wash volumes, although we are not aware whether it is a Clemondo customer. Data from both Statistics Sweden (SCB) and the National Institute of Economic Research (Konjunkturinstitutet) indicate favourable conditions in the Swedish industrial market in Q3, suggesting that potential customers’ operations should remain relatively healthy. However, Clemondo must still win new customers and scale up volumes with recently signed customers.

Medical Care could pressure gross margins. Prices for ethanol, oil and energy remain elevated, affecting input costs. Clemondo has been clear that it raises prices where possible, but Medical Care contracts are fixed-price agreements and could therefore weigh on the group’s gross margin during the period. This is the reason for our lower gross-margin assumption, which is our only estimate revision.

Growth drivers. We expect continued growth in the Vehicle segment, albeit at a slower pace than in Q2, which had also benefited from sales to Tammermatic. We forecast Contract manufacturing to perform well and the Industry segment to return to growth. We expect the Medical Care segment to continue delivering fairly high growth, despite Q3 typically being a seasonally weak quarter for the segment.

Fair value range SEK8–11 per share, based on 2026e EV/EBITDA of 7–9x.