Strong end to 2026e - Q3 preview

Q3 was an eventful quarter for AAC, marked by several contract wins, expansion announcements and a strengthened financial position. Some of the new orders include deliveries in 2026, potentially supporting revenue towards the upper end of the company's full-year guidance, while our estimates remain around the midpoint. However, given reports of supply chain constraints among other European space companies, similar to those seen in the defence sector, we maintain our 2026 sales estimates and still expect a strong finish to the year. With only minor estimate revisions, we reiterate our fair value range of SEK120–152 per share.

Three orders announced in Q3. Announced orders totalled cSEK38m during the quarter. The largest was an ESA contract for microwave radiometer instruments. The second largest involved power systems and onboard subsystems for a Dutch aerospace company. The third, which we find particularly encouraging, came from a NATO member state for AAC Spacemetric’s Keystone server software, used for precision correction of high resolution satellite data.

Strengthened balance sheet. AAC’s largest shareholder, Bonnier Capital, exercised warrants, generating gross proceeds of SEK40m to support the expansion of AAC’s satellite networks. The company also secured an SEK80m credit facility from Swedbank to manage working capital fluctuations during its growth phase.

Expanding production capacity and satellite constellation. AAC is expanding its facilities in Glasgow, London, Gothenburg and Fairfax, supporting both deliveries from the existing backlog and future growth. We view these investments as a sign of management’s confidence in the company’s long-term prospects. In parallel, AAC announced plans to launch two additional satellites in its Sedna constellation in 2027, bringing the total to six.

Maintained fair value range, corresponding to a 2026e EV/sales of 1.7–2.3x.