Revenue deferred, not lost - Q3 review

Q3 sales of SEK73m were 6% below our SEK77m forecast, while EBITDA was SEK-6m, materially below our SEK2m estimate. However, EBITDA included cSEK9m of non-recurring accounting adjustments related to prior periods. Excluding these items, adj. EBITDA was cSEK2m and broadly in line with our forecast. Following the result, we revise our 2026 sales and EBITDA estimates and also trim our 2027–28 estimates. Although the changes to our adj. EPS estimates appear significant in percentage terms, the absolute revisions are small. After the Q3 result, our forecast revisions and updates to peer multiples, we set a new fair value range of SEK25–35 per share (SEK25–34).

Order momentum remains encouraging. MDI sales of SEK62m grew 3% Y/Y and were broadly flat organically, but order intake increased 22% Y/Y to SEK61m. On the conference call, management described demand as broad based across customers, clinical segments and regions, with particular activity in cardiac and peripheral interventions. The end-Q3 order book increased 35% Y/Y to SEK132m, with SEK43m scheduled for delivery in Q4. HCS also showed an improved order trend in Q3, with sales growing 4% Y/Y to SEK11m, while order intake increased 61% to SEK12m, supported by new customers in the Americas and industry-partner orders in EMEA.

Q4 delivery is the key proof point. Roughly SEK43m of the order book is scheduled for recognition in Q4, in addition to projects that have slipped from Q3. This, together with normal seasonality, supports our expectation of a strong Q4.

Estimate revisions. We cut 2026e sales by 2% and EBITDA by SEK9m, or c78%, reflecting project deferrals, non-recurring prior period adjustments and also some caution about execution. For 2027–28, we make only minor changes to sales estimates, being mainly revenue deferred from 2026, and we update our opex assumptions. We continue to see a strong underlying equity story, supported by broad-based order momentum, a larger order book and encouraging early progress in HCS. Q3 shows that delivery and profitability remain uneven, but underlying demand appears intact.