Still awaiting sales recovery - Q3 review

OssDsign’s Q3 was somewhat underwhelming compared to our expectations with sales 3% below our forecast, but down 20% organically Y/Y. On the back of the numbers, we lower our 2026–28e sales by 2–5%, reflecting slightly lower organic growth assumptions and a less favourable USD/SEK rate since our previous update. We maintain our fair value range of SEK6–9.

Q3 review. Sales were ~SEK36m, 3% below our forecast, and declined ~20% organically Y/Y and 8% Q/Q in USD terms. The seasonal impact on sales outlined in the Q2 report materialised, although the outcome was somewhat weaker than anticipated. That said, the absolute sales miss versus our forecast was relatively limited at SEK1m. The gross margin improved from Q1–Q2 to 93.2% (we expected 92.2%), supported by a more favourable product and customer mix compared with Q2. However, the gross margin declined Y/Y from 95.6% in Q3 2025. Adj. EBIT of SEK-6.6m was above our forecast of SEK-10m. However, capitalised development at SEK9.6m was higher than our SEK6m estimate, meaning adj. EBIT was broadly in line when accounting for this difference. OCF was SEK-5m, while net cash flow after intangible capex, lease repayments and effects from the warrant programme was SEK-15m. Cash and equivalents stood at SEK138m at quarter end.

Estimate changes. We lower our 2026–28e sales by 2–5%, reflecting slightly lower organic growth assumptions and a less favourable USD/SEK since our previous update.

Growth recovery needed to restore confidence, we believe. In our view, OssDsign’s equity story rests on its ability to return to high sales growth. While we acknowledge initiatives are being taken, we believe there is no quick fix and that the company needs to demonstrate sustained improvement in its growth trajectory before the market is willing to revalue the stock. Our fair value range is SEK6–9.